Timberline will issue these notices from time to time in the hopes that they may help you plan for upcoming needs.

Framing Lumber

The lumber market took off this week, the problems brought about by the torrential rains in the Northwest lit the fuse, with rail and road transportation being significantly disrupted as a result of washouts and mudslides through out the region bringing lumber shipments to a virtual standstill.
The underlying issues of a 6 million acre no logging reserve for old growth forest in British Columbia, and the imposition of tariffs on Canadian lumber (up to 16%) by the US were the dynamite.

Eastern mills (also subjected to the tariff, but at a lower rate) were quick to take advantage of the shortages, raising prices, and going off the market.

Shipments for Eastern mills are 2-3 weeks, but Christmas and New Years are quick becoming issues.

We expect higher prices through January, and perhaps beyond depending on weather and continued demand. Increases approaching 35% are not unlikely

Treated Lumber

Southern Yellow Pine and treated material have been much less affected by the rise in framing lumber. No tariff, seasonality, and a drop in Covid cases in the South allowing for higher production have kept a damper on prices here. Big Box stores are just now starting to make contract purchases for treated, but it remains to be seen how mill might react to the likes of Home Depot after the chain cancelled a ton of contracts when the market dropped this year.

We expect prices to rise 10-15% over the course of the next 60 days.

Plywood & OSB

Fir plywood was affected by the same storms in the Northwest….with more to come this week….and supplies have dried up, with no one able to predict when we will see a reopening of a regular supply. Prices are up strongly and availability is way down.

Southern Yellow Pine plywood, is available at higher prices and somewhat longer lead times.

OSB will react to this at some point but has yet to make a big move.

All Zip, Fir, SYP, and OSB mills are still struggling with the resin problems brough on by the deep freeze in Texas last winter that knocked out almost all of the US domestic production of an important ingredient in almost all adhesives.

Engineered

Supply has improved somewhat (largely in reaction to significant pricing increases) from the fall. Spot shortages and some extended lead times are to be expected.

Specialties

White Cedar shingles are very difficult to source. Most major manufacturers have stopped producing Extras and Clears and are now producing a mixed grade product referred to as “Wall Grade” this is what you will see going forward. Because mills make more money on pre-stained shingles, there is better availability on these than raw shingles.

Red Cedar shingles and clapboards all come from the Northwest and will be affected by the same issues as lumber and plywood mills.

PVC and Boral….prices up again by about 10%. Depending on oil prices we could see further increase in the price of PVC in the near future

Eastern White Pine….they have a problem with paper. A mill fire earlier this year knocked out one of the biggest pulp paper mills in the region. A large portion of the trees cut to provide finish pine are small and yield few quality boards, the rest of the tree goes into pulp to produce paper. With this mill down, many of the EWP producers don’t have an outlet for the fall down from the board production. Without someplace to ship this material to and the income that it produces, mills are reducing production and increasing prices.

Primed FJ pine and moldings are all made from Radiata pine which is imported largely from Chile and New Zealand. Chile has covid and political problems, New Zealand is just now beginning to resume exports. The back up at ports contributes to the problem

Ipe and Tropical Hardwoods are hard to find and costs are moving much higher.

Composite decking requires resin and is oil based. There has been some relaxation in terms of supply, but much of that is seasonality. This will continue to be scarce and more expensive.

Metal products are kind of a mixed bag. Tariffs have come off of aluminum and some steel items, but most of the benefits of that have been eaten up by increased costs in shipping and delays at the ports. Steel studs are an exception to this and are moving distinctly higher

Adhesives….special mention here, almost all adhesives are in critically short supply. Price is no longer any kind of issue, we are into “buy it if you can find it” territory.

Roofing

As the price of oil goes up so do the prices of the items that have a high oil content….like asphalt shingles.
Availability is spotty, with all manufacturers limiting the colors that they will manufacture to the most popular colors.
The first of the year is always a good time to raise prices, look for another 10%, and continued short supply.

Insulation

Pretty much the same story as with roofing but only more so. Prices up 10+% and no production for any kind of specialty products as they focus on bread and butter items. Insulation board particularly affected, with prices up 20+% on some items.

Gypsum

First of the year price increases of 10-30%.
Specialty items with extended lead times if they will even take an order.

Windows & Doors

Nothing new here, count on long lead times and higher prices. Any kind of a change even a day after an order is placed is poison, be careful to have end users sign off in blood.

Kitchen Cabinets

Lead times continue to be very long, depending on brand 8-16 weeks. Master Brands…probably the largest manufacturer announced a 12% increase for the first of the year, others will follow.

In General

Look for continued supply chain issues and higher to much higher prices. The first rule of construction….”it takes longer and costs more” ….will be in full effect for at least the first quarter of next year.

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